2020 NHL Draft Profile: Jack Quinn

Jack Quinn

RW, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

5’11″/176 lbs, 17.99 years old


Strengths

Elite-level goalscorer with a terrifying release:

  • Quinn has a rocket of shot with one of the quickest releases in the draft. His snapshot is his primary weapon: he likes to pull the puck back into his wheelhouse before snapping it forwards, disguising his release before picking a corner with a hard shot.
  • Versatile scoring threat: can shoot off the rush, take hard backhanders while cutting across the slot, unleash hard one-timers from the circle on the man advantage, or slash into the slot for the dangles and finish.
  • Has the hands and feet to consistently penetrate the slot and is deadly from that range.
  • Scored 52 goals in 62 games, the most since John Tavares potted 58 in 2009. Over a full 68 game season, he was on pace for 57 tallies and would’ve had a realistic shot at breaking Tavares’ benchmark with a big final six games.
  • Volume shooter: averaged 3.87 shots per game this season, the sixth highest rate of CHL draft eligible forwards. Over 21% of those shots found the back of the net, again the sixth highest rate among CHL draft eligible forwards.

Above-average skater:

  • Quinn is a very mobile player– he’s not a burner that will blow by a defender, but his speed is above-average and he can move laterally and change direction very well.
  • Able to enter the zone and cut hard laterally into the slot, finding pockets of space to unleash shots.
  • Able to stop up on a dime, allowing him to attack with speed down the wing and quickly put on the breaks to create the space for a dangerous shot.
  • Quinn’s agility and ability to change directions quickly is a major asset on the boards, where he’s able to keep the puck and shield it from defenders in large part due to his feet, avoiding physical confrontations where the 5’11” forward would be at a significant disadvantage to larger defenders.

Patient and comfortable puck handler:

  • It’s not unusual for players that can absolutely rip a puck to come through a draft– there are plenty of players with terrific shots that won’t go on the first day of the draft this year. What sets Quinn apart from a typical shooter is his ability to handle and be very comfortable on the puck. I think we’re all familiar with hockey’s stereotypical sniper: an Ovechkin-type guy that does nothing but sit at the hashmarks waiting for one-time feeds. Quinn is far more multi-dimensional than that typical player.
  • Quinn isn’t afraid to hold onto and skate with the puck for as long as necessary before finding a play. He’ll even wheel the puck all the way around the perimeter of the offensive zone before cutting into the slot or stopping up for a quick shot, a tendency that is more customary of a dynamic playmaker (like Quinn’s teammate Marco Rossi).
  • Has quick hands that he can use to finish from in tight. Able to navigate dense areas like the slot while maintaining possession of the puck, and can quickly receive passes and maneuver into a shooting position.

Works well in the cycle:

  • He isn’t massive at 6’1″/179 lbs, but Quinn is very proficient working in the corners and along the boards in the offensive zone.
  • Quinn has good sense for the location of his teammates and can leave the puck in space and go hard to the net for a return pass. He’s able to tie up defensive players along the boards to create space for his teammates and can create seperation for himself with quick stops/starts and changes of direction.
  • Quinn’s line in Ottawa did an exceptional job pinning the opposition in their end for long stretches, tiring out the opposition and creating offensive opportunities out of the cycle game.

Impressive two-way game:

  • Quinn is a rather polished two-way player that will hunt pucks on the forecheck, play solid positional defence in his own zone, and possesses the defensive wherewithal to recognize and deny passing lanes with his stick.
  • Played on the penalty kill for the 67’s and was dependable in that role. Provided a nice offensive punch while a man down too, scoring three shorties.

Weaknesses:

Contextual factors surely boosted Quinn’s impact:

  • Quinn is at the top of the range of possibilities for both age and team strength.
  • As a September 19, 2001 birthdate, Quinn missed the cutoff for the 2019 draft by only four days. He is older than 99% of his peers in this draft class.
  • Quinn plays for the Ottawa 67’s who have been the OHL’s top team the past two seasons. He didn’t play with Marco Rossi on Ottawa’s stacked top line, playing consistently alongside Mitchell Hoelscher, a sixth round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2018 who had 76 points in 62 games, instead. However, he did play with Ottawa’s top talent on the man advantage, where he wracked up 15 of his 52 goals and 25 of his 74 primary points. Even without spending time with him at even strength, Marco Rossi was responsible for the primary assist on a Jack Quinn goal more frequently than any player outside of Hoelscher.

Could benefit from added explosiveness:

  • This is a little nitpicky as I don’t think it will hold Quinn back, but the winger could benefit from increased explosiveness as a skater. His game isn’t build around burning defenders and terrorizing with speed (hence why I don’t see this area holding him back at all), but he could really add another element of danger off the rush by improving his first step and acceleration.

The Numbers:

Age GP PTS PTS/GP P1/GP
17.99 62 89 1.44 1.19

Quinn had an excellent statistical campaign, potting 52 goals in a second-line role for Ottawa. He was helped by the contextual factors I described above, but his season was impressive nonetheless. The strength of his Ottawa team is the main factor at play here, so let’s delve into his numbers in context of his team in a little more detail.

The winger’s 1.44 points per game made up 30% of Ottawa’s 4.77 team goals per context. 30% of the OHL-worst North Bay Battalion’s offence would be 0.91 points/game, a considerably less impressive surface rate than his actual rate with the 67’s. To put that in perspective, North Bay forward Brandon Coe (who isn’t projected to go until the 3rd round or later at the draft) managed 0.95 points/match. For a more average offensive team like the Sarnia Sting, 30% involvement would be 1.18 points per game, an impressive but unspectacular rate. This isn’t to say that Quinn’s production isn’t impressive– 30% is a high-end rate and these are just rough estimates of how he would do in different environments that fail to account for factors like the varying strength of the different lines of the team (that Rossi-Garreffa-Keating line would have been responsible for a larger portion of Ottawa’s offence than Quinn’s line or any other grouping on the roster), but it puts things in perspective quite nicely.

Another statistical trend worth quickly exploring is the location of Quinn’s shots. Here’s a heatmap from pick224.com displaying his goals (dots) and shots (the heatmaps underneath).

quinnheatmap

As you can see, Quinn’s even strength goals were generally scored from right around the crease area. None of his goals at evens were from above the circles, excluding two from above the blueline (I didn’t see every one of Ottawa’s games, but I would assume they were mischarted).

Summary:

Quinn’s attention-grabbing trait will always be his scoring, but the forward has a very well-rounded profile that sets him apart from your typical sniper. Not only is he one of the better scorers to come out of the CHL in recent years, but Quinn also a refined two-way player that can handle the puck for extended periods, work off his teammates to maintain possession for long intervals in the cycle game, and even make plays as a passer when the opportunity presents itself. He doesn’t demonstrate any noteworthy holes in his on-ice game and projects as a top-six winger that can top 30 goals in addition to a well-rounded, two-way impact in all zones.

It’s important to note that Quinn’s surface impact in comparison to his peers in this draft is exaggerated somewhat by his advanced age and the strength of his team. He was 18 for the entirety of the season, whereas a player like Quinton Byfield played the full year at 17 and won’t turn of age until late this summer. If he was four days older, Quinn’s 2018-19 season (where he posted 32 points in 61 games) would have been his draft year and it’s extremely unlikely that he would have gone in the first round at all.

Nonetheless, Quinn has shown a lot of growth from last year and has raised his game to a considerably higher level. He took his skating from average to a strength, improved his work along the boards, became more aggressive in attacking the slot, and stepped up his comfort level handling the puck for lengthier stretches. The 18 year old really took his game to another level as a multidimensional attacker from last year to this season. I don’t agree with the growing notion that Quinn is deserving of a top 10 selection at the draft, but I think his profile is easily worthy of a selection in the teens. Quinn should be able to pot 30 or more goals a year, control the possession game with quality work along the boards and his ability to extend possessions through the cycle, and maintain a positive two-way impact throughout his NHL career. I doubt that there’s a single NHL team that wouldn’t want to add that sort of player to their lineup.

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